Theories and Uninformation

2024-10-24

(This is entry 20 of #100DaysToOffload)

There is a lot of talk nowadays about misinformation: purposeful falsehood (if maybe realistic sounding) generated spread for political reasons. But also, I think too little attention is given to another form of uninformation: theories.

The world is highly complex. We as humans cannot hope to model it in our heads, or to understand it, really. The ancients knew this: perfect knowledge is the domain of the gods, not of man. We've since forgotten this.

We as individuals form all manner of political arguments and conclusions based off speculation, and what we think would happen if x. We take singular examples and generalise them to excess. We have an opinion of a solution which we affix to whatever problem we can. Less regulation, or more, or ...

The problem with all of this is: it is so subject to interpretation. It is such a long chain of assumptions (most subconscious) that it's hard to see where it breaks. We assume that the breakage will occur to the other side: it'll happen to both.

The best chance we have of truth: of what is real, not merely realistic (cf. the distinction between natural and naturalistic) is to go by what has happened repeatedly. Not to make leaps of faith. Not to go in too strong on an idea.